Disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Set Tone For The Week
Following on from last week’s weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls data, the dollar is likely to see further early pressure this week.
We could however see this tone quickly reversed in a week that sees several key pieces of data released. This will provide further insight into the state of the US recovery and of course will dictate the direction of the dollar.
Up for release this week are monthly US Core Retail Sales and CPI which will provide a snapshot of economic activity over the important Christmas trading period. Following on from this the Fed Chairman Bernanke addresses the market on Thursday and here traders will be looking for clues regarding the much talked about tapering.
Elsewhere the British Pound will be in focus with CPI and Retail Sales figures due for release. The British economy has shown itself to be a mixed bag over the previous months so these figures are likely to dictate where the UK markets and Sterling move over the week.
On the commodity front Gold continues to look interesting. It has looked like the metal could be forging a low for a while now. Lasts weeks swing higher adds some more credibility to this view.
Key News This Week
EUR/USD – The pair bounced strongly after testing 1.3550 support. Bias is now long with 1.3750 offering the first true test of resistance. A possible retest of the 13800 level could be seen this week if we move above the aforementioned level.
USD/JPY – After testing the 105.00 level the pair pulled back some 100 pips to end the week at 104.00. The USDJPY has posted 9 consecutive weeks of gains it is expected and this simply looks like consolidation while keeping the bigger picture intact.
USD/CHF – The USDCHF has fallen back below the falling trend line which has dictated price action since August last year. Although it ended the week above 0.9000 we would expect to see an early break of 0.8990 and a move lower over the week.
GBP/USD – A third week of sideways movement saw Cable end the week with a bullish tone. This is likely to continue into next week a retest of 1.6600 could happen this week if the fundamental picture remains favourable.
DOW – This marks the second week that the Index has failed to build on gains made during the week. The technical picture looks as though we could soon see a pullback as the market consolidates gains. We would look lower over this week.
NASDAQ – Having now filled the gap back down at 4100 the market looks set to move higher. 4150 should provide initial support to the market this week which looks positioned to forge new gains above its current high of 4174.
FTSE – Despite ending the week back over 6700 the picture looks mixed for the FTSE. It ranged for long periods over the second half of last year and this looks set to continue into 2014. 6800 and 6600 provides markers for the range.
Oil – After bouncing from a test of $91.00 Oil Crude ended the week at $92.68. The technical outlook remains bearish although any move lower is likely to see strong support down to $90.00 per barrel.
Gold – The metal continues to find support at $1200. This suggests that the market is keen not to let the price go lower for now. We would tentatively suggest that a bottom could be forming and would look higher towards $1300 over the week.
A big week of data as reporting from the Christmas period really starts to kick in. In general we expect Technology stocks to provide relatively positive updates, retailers to broadly have been under-pressure over the Christmas period and energy stocks to be positive.
Here is the full list of Stocks that are reporting which are of note to Binary Options traders.
Monday - Caterpillar, Yahoo
Tuesday - Amazon, Ford, Pfizer
Wednesday - Imperial Tobacco, United Utilities
Thursday - Time Warner, Astrazeneca, Kazakhmys Rank,
Friday - BT, Chevron, Merck and Co, Exxon