I think I have commented before that there are an ever growing number of binary options signal services appearing on the markets. However the sign of a good service is one that has been in existence for a while. UpDown Binary Signals is one such provider that I haven’t until now had the opportunity to review.
Like nearly all providers of binary options signals, I have read mixed reports on the results achieved by UpDown signals. However on thing I have learnt is that you have to be skeptical of many reviews and comments that you read when it comes to financial products and services.
Many people simply struggle to implement the signals provided correctly or fail to follow money basic money management rules. Then when it all goes wrong they blame the service rather than their own actions. Unfortunately these tend to be the people who shout loudest, making it difficult to gain a real perspective on performance.
So I thought it was about time to kick off with some live testing of these signals and check out their performance for myself.
The UpDown Binary Signals Service
Signals for the service are generated according to an ‘algorithmic model’ provided by a solution called ‘Financial Maps’. This works through a five stage process which is designed to calculate the statistical likelihood of an opportunity delivering the expected result.
The five stages listed are used to analyse the markets as follows -
1. Assets List
Information and data is gathered on all available assets. This is used to determine if they are likely to react positively to the statistical models. The data is used to filter out any markets where it is assumed to be less easy to predict direction.
2. Pre-Opening Data
Assets which have passed the first screen are then run through a further algorithm to determine expected volume and trade sizes. This is run against historical data in order to help forecast the most likely movements.
3. Market At Opening
Assets that have made it this far in the screening process are monitored to observe their price action over the first half an hour of trading.
4. Proprietary Models
A further four mathematical models are then run on qualifying assets to further refine potential trading opportunities. This is carried out in real time to help improve accuracy.
5. Filtering The Best Signals
This final stage helps to filter the weak from the strong. Potential opportunities are ranked according to their strength, with those showing the strongest potential being selected for alerts.
Up to five signals are selected each trading day according to the above criteria. They are then sent out as an alert via SMS at around 11:30 EST. The literature on the website makes it clear that you will usually receive around three signals (the best opportunities) each day. On days when markets are unclear you may receive none. This is fair given that no one is going to want to trade their account if the probability of success is limited.
Once you receive the alert the next step is to check the current live market price. You only open a contract if you can get in at the suggested level sent or better.
For example if you get a Call Option sent for Oil at 93.04, you would only open a Call contract if it was at this level or below. It is suggested that you wait for only 10 minutes after receiving the alert to see if you can get your entry. If not then disregard the position for the day.
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UpDown signals claim to deliver solid long term performance. This is currently stands at 76% over the last 88 days. An average of 3.3 signals per day were sent. The most recent trades results can be viewed by visiting the website.
The service comes in at $99 per month. This falls in line with most other binary signals providers. A one week trial is available for just $4.99. This is a low sum and will allow you to try out the signals to see if they work for you. Of course, always remember to use this period to test the results. I recommend you trade only mall amounts in case things don’t’ work out as expected.
If you have already taken a look at some of the live signals reviews on this site then the format will be broadly familiar. All trades I take are logged below giving you access to independent live results. These can be tracked so that you will be able to build up a picture of whether you think these signals are right for you.
The website looks good and ultimately everything is clearly explained. Importantly the results provided also look respectable, however as always, it is the actual results we are interested in.
Will the UpDown signals prove to be the best trading signals for binary options? To find out we need to investigate further.
So this Friday marks pretty much the half way point in the review of this service. Those are familiar with our reviews will know that I like to post an update at this point to cover what I have found out so far. It also allows me to clarify certain points about the service.
As a starting point it is best perhaps to look at the results to date. A summary is as follows:-
8 wins, 4 loss, 3 couldn’t get entry
This is shy of the quoted rate of return (running at around 67% at present) but then we also need to factor in the 11/01 when I was not around to place the signals that were sent. This could easily have pushed the performance up to the quoted strike rate, assuming an entry was possible.
It is also worth noting that the last week has been quite heavy on news and this is no doubt reflected in the two days where no signals were sent.
It worth clearing up some questions on the signals themselves. Firstly as you can see from the results below you will notice that a lot of the signals are being placed on commodities. This may impact the ability to place all signals as not all of these assets are readily available from brokers.
Secondly there is the issue of timing. The website suggests that the alerts are good for predicting the trend for up to three hours. This I took as meaning you would simply place for the the latest expiry time from the broker (hourly) which was fine as long as it was within the 3 hour window. However the more recent alerts have included a ‘specific’ expiry time (usually 19:30 GMT). This will pose a problem for many people as there are very few brokers offering these contracts.
I contracted support who were fast in their response to my question. They informed me they are using TradeStation. Now while I hold nothing against Tradestation (and I am sure there will be some others offering three hour expires) if does mean that these signals are unlikely to have broad-market appeal. I really don’t want to have to open yet another broker account just to accommodate these alerts. I expect others may also find this a limiting factor.
Therefore I will continue with the one hour expiry times as I have been up to now.
Scroll Down To Read My Final Verdict
UpDown Signals Results - Live Trading
|11/01/13||Signals I was unable to place (personal reasons)|
|21/01/13||No Trades - Martin Luther King Day US|
My overriding opinion of the UpDown signal service is that this is one of the better services on the market.
It is true however that the results I got may not be entirely accurate, as many of the initial signals I placed I used an hourly expiry time. This was due to the exact expiry time in the alerts not being available on the trading accounts I had available to me at the time.
I think that this is really the only caveat to using this service - you need to make sure that you are happy that your broker offers the ability to set the specified expiry times required by these signals.
The UpDown results are certainly encouraging, consequently making this service worth a look .Trying it ‘for size’ is hardly a big ask. A ‘non-recurring’ 7 day trial is available for $25 or you can choose monthly ($97) or quarterly ($197) plans.
UpDown Signals Review Summary
- Good historical performance with over 76% winning positions
- Daily signal suggestions with up to 5 opportunities
- Defined trading window - 13:30 EST
- You will need to be around to place trades in the suggested time window